Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
